The future of language; how do you say that in French?

For those of us who grew up at school learning French, subsequently being told it was next-to-useless was somewhat disheartening. Spanish quickly became a preferred language of learning given its wider application, and following the appreciation of China’s rise, Mandarin. Whilst French remains a beautiful language, few would have suggested it was a future global language.

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Thanks to demographic trends in Sub-Saharan Africa, French could, in fact, be the most-spoken language in the world, ahead of English and even Mandarin by 2050 -with 750 million native speakers. So, will tomorrow’s schoolchildren be learning French, after all? Perhaps the better question, despite the numerous mental benefits that language learning unquestionably confers, is whether they will be learning a second language at all?

Tech experts believe that ‘…within a decade or so, we’ll be able to communicate with one another via small earpieces with built-in microphones[i].’ The value of language learning could certainly diminish in relative terms given the technological probability of effective real-time translation apps. Cultural barriers would certainly still exist and the benefits of working abroad may if anything, be exaggerated, but with language barriers dropping, what would happen to the wider world of work? Talent platforms and other forms of digitally based work would suddenly ensure a range of contract work becomes increasingly competitive. Whilst the outsourcing of English speaking contact centre jobs is mature in its evolution, might such possibilities open up competition in places without such histories. Finnish call centres and Hungarian telemarketing are unlikely to hitherto had much competition from India or the Philippines but with language 2.0, a flatter world could deliver such competition.

Since many transformations occur at the intersection of two or more technologies, it is worth speculating on what happens after what happens next. Will the spoken language remain a principle way of communication? In all likelihood, yes, since we are a social species, yet intriguing opportunities are emerging; Emotiv, for example, is a product that can read your brainwaves and understand their meaning through electroencephalography (or EEG). Married to an instant translation app or algorithm, the prospects for internationalizing (or at least providing remote options for) a whole range of social and scientific fields becomes possible. Various brain to machine interfaces have already allowed people to control airplanes and other machines with the power of their mind. It is only a matter of time – perhaps little more than a decade, before direct brain to brain communications occurs. Irrespective of dominant languages, perhaps the lingua franca of the future will be digital.

[i] http://theconversation.com/could-the-language-barrier-actually-fall-within-the-next-10-years-54805

U.S. election; the biggest loser?

Now that Donald Trump has secured the Republican nomination, Hillary Clinton looking set to wrap up the Democratic nomination, and no viable independent candidate in discussion, the options appear set. The world’s sole remaining superpower (for now) must choose between two individuals that have set records for their unpopularity. Whoever assumes the White House is likely to start with the lowest approval rating in history.

trump

Given Trump’s efforts to alienate women, Hispanics and other minorities, one would assume a clear path for Clinton, but given the uncertain outcome of the civil war within the Republican party and Trump’s populist and xenophobic message, a historic realignment of American politics remains possible. Under such circumstances, all bets and predictions are off.

There can be little doubt however, that the Trump candidacy alone represents a deeply damaging moment for U.S democracy. Not only does it show how antiquated and out of touch its current political system has become with swathes of its electorate, it threatens global stability in myriad ways. Trade wars, an isolationist and mercantilist foreign policy and a seeming lack of ideology (or understanding) underpinning any of the policy u-turns thus announced would radically reduce U.S influence globally, reduce allies’ trust and create global regional chaos in the event of unilateral U.S military withdrawal. Lapsing security guarantees alone would problematize the nuclear proliferation question in eastern Asia and the Middle East and effectively mark the end of American military hegemony. The economy would follow too were Trump to embark on economically ruinous policies of deporting illegal immigrants and confronting China directly over currency manipulation.

If, as many outside the U.S hope, Trump’s reactionary campaign fails, it is hard to argue that a Clinton victory would signal business as usual. In some way, the damage has already been done. The economic, social and demographic forces propelling Trump have been legitimized (even if the majority of his supporters come from declining demographic segments) and he is unlikely to represent the last of a string of strongmen types both cashing in on and fueling populist rage – a situation unthinkable in the U.S even a decade ago.

There can be little doubt that a slow burning political crisis is underway in America that will outlast this election cycle. In an increasingly divided nation that views moderation as a compromise too far, this is likely to result in further gridlock (such a thing is possible) in Congress – rendering void many Presidential plans. The geopolitical and economic forces that propelled the U.S, throughout the 20th Century are evaporating as sources of competitive advantage and its government needs to tackle a host of pressing complex domestic and international issues from social security to climate change. Inaction is not an option, yet 20th Century ideas still prevail. More than ever the U.S. needs an honest and straightforward internal dialogue about the severe economic and social issues it faces and a unifying candidate able to articulate this clearly and confidently – something unlikely when the fight for the most unpopular President in history concludes this November.

Future skills in a changing world of work

Skills shortages and talent issues are central to many industries and organisations, and despite the ameliorative effects of some technologies, will continue to be so. Given the complexity of many organisations’ operations and uncertain digital direction, the precise skills needed for any given are impossible to determine, especially without consideration of their organisational and business model. However, in general, the emerging digital economy will concurrently demand both more data fluency and soft skills.

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86 percent of business decision makers believe all employees, especially knowledge workers, will need to become ‘…data geeks[i].’ Worryingly, only 30 percent of organisations have a long term formal plan for analytics[ii]. Without integrated strategies, the talent needs of industries will shift at a greater rate as organisations adapt to latest developments. Talent platforms are one possible emerging route for mitigating the damage that uncoordinated strategies present, as they enable companies to adapt to changes in the type of skills needed faster than the labour market can traditionally provide. Arguably a better appreciation of the type of skills needed can be achieved by scenario planning and strategically aligning technology to goals yet the notion of (shifting) skill demands will force organisational model change, as access to – rather than ownership of – talent becomes a key feature of successful business ecosystems. Strategic third party cooperation will likely become a key skills and talent issue in the coming years as many organisations realise their configuration of current workforce, skills and technology is dated and will increasingly hamper growth.

In addition to data geeks, knowledge workers will need to become technology generalists. Distributed workers will require specialist technologies to collaborate and engage in meaningful ways, as will managers overseeing remote staff. Haptic interfaces, mixed reality and 3D interactive holographs will redraw the remote (and in office) work experience significantly throughout the coming decade.

At the same time, the ability to reskill on the job could change radically. At the intersection of the IoT and wearables lies the promise of the quantified self. The efficacy and efficiency of on the job training could improve significantly, by using this technology to pinpoint areas of specific employee weakness and then suggesting and implementing courses of action to remedy the issue, such as short MOOC or access to new research on a given topic. This holds significant implications for education in general as well as skills and talent in the workplace. It also introduces the notion of closer human-machine union. Whether through implants or artificially raising cognitive abilities, the fusion of human and machine (beyond just pure automation) will not just challenge current ideas over skills and talent but change the paradigm entirely.

[i] http://www.news-sap.com/sap-sponsored-survey-finds-business-decision-makers-struggle-unlock-power-big-data/

[ii] http://sloanreview.mit.edu/projects/the-hard-work-behind-data-analytics-strategy/

The future of doping in sports

The medicalization of sports is nothing new; drugs such as EPO that treat anemia in cancer patients and significantly boost red blood cell counts have been common place in distance events since the early 90’s and the desire to be faster, higher and stronger seems well entrenched in the human psyche. However inadequate the science, politics and organisation of implementing current anti-doping efforts are perceived to be, a full revolution will likely be needed in the coming years if the system is not to collapse completely.

drugs

Advances in medicine are such that an era of gene doping is likely imminent, if not already underway. Medicines and therapies that genetically instruct the body to produce more EPO are already in testing – ranging from ingestible pills to gene therapy. If such methods avoid the common drug testing routine of looking for foreign substances in blood and urine, then whole new scientific paradigms will need to be employed by the testers, and probably at great cost.

It is likely that wearables or ingestible technologies could evolve to become a more reliable and constant real-time test for conventional drugs and doping techniques, and allied to big data and predictive analytics indicate a range of predicted performances given certain parameters. Beyond this, could genetic passports – similar to, but more advanced than today’s biological passports – be needed?

Some advances will even lead to some questioning what exactly constitutes doping – ‘…electroactive polymers (EAPs) bend and stretch like real muscle fiber in response to an electrical charge; clothing woven with EAPs might augment an athlete’s muscle power,’ says Yoseph Bar-Cohen, a physicist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Lab[i].

Beyond gene doping lies the possibility of shifting the playing field before a baby is even born. Embryo selection and IVF could enable us to eliminate many genetic diseases, extend healthy lifespans, and enhance people’s overall well-being in the coming decades. Indeed, some have predicted that by 2040, the majority of babies will be created rather than conceived[ii]. Even if the prediction of a majority falls flat, it would seem likely that a future Olympic champion will have had the benefit of superior gene-selection and enhancement without ever having the need to dope in the conventional sense, yet benefit from many of the characteristics that various doping products create.

This creates fundamental questions for sport going forward; what will it mean to be an athlete, what constitutes doping, how do you level a playing field for athletes that is increasingly uneven (assuming these techniques cost a lot of money) and how do you monitor and verify such advancements? Will we be happy, on a philosophical level, to watch the spectacle of sport devolve further into a medical arms-race?

There can be little doubt that the type of medicines, techniques and procedures mentioned will provide a net benefit to humanity and to wellbeing, but the unintended (and in some cases very much intended) side effects will completely rewrite the rules governing a $145 billion global industry[iii].

 

[i] http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/the-future-of-cheating-in-sports-138914769/?no-ist

[ii] http://qz.com/677335/by-the-year-2040-embryo-selection-will-replace-sex-as-the-way-most-of-us-make-babies/

[iii] http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/hospitality-leisure/changing-the-game-outlook-for-the-global-sports-market-to-2015.html

The platform economy

The platform economy, taken as a whole is perhaps the most singularly disruptive force impacting work and the future of work. Whilst technologies can create significant shifts in what we do, the broad spectrum of change from platforms will change how we work, and more. A platform economy could be described as one in which tools and frameworks based on external ecosystems (such as the Internet but also other networks) shape our economic and social lives. Platforms – in all their guises – act as frameworks for collaboration between users, providers and peers, and also result in these definitions blurring somewhat. Since the top 15 public ‘platform’ companies already represent $2.6 trillion in market capitalization globally, it is no surprise that 81% of executives say platform-based business models will be core to their growth strategy within three years[i]. Collaboration has clearly become more than a buzzword.

platformeconomy

Whilst platforms have proven themselves in terms of their innovation potential, part of their disruptive nature lies in their ability to create external challenges that must be met; innovation is creating the need for further innovation. Fundamental rules of strategy are broken – with emphasis placed on external interactions, generating ecosystem value and harnessing network effects. Failure to appreciate this shift is one obvious source of disruption for business lacking the agility or culture to adapt, but the nature of the disruption means that its impact will be felt beyond those industries more obviously suited to platforms, such as manufacturing. For one, with GDP as a measurement of economic growth increasingly unable to measure the value of digital services, the need to develop new methods of assessing wealth will become pressing. It is only fitting that a new economy designs new measurement tools

Platforms will also create new standards for which there are no clear policies or in some cases, supporting structures. The traditional work model – already under pressure from other issues such as automation, will likely break, necessitating a revolution in the way that benefits are provided. One need only think of the prospect of a large minority contingent workforce to see the scale of change needed; health insurance, pensions and other provisions will need to be recalibrated in an era where the pace of technological and organisational change is outstripping the ability of both labour markets and the capacity of government to respond. Regulatory frameworks, corporate practices, access to the internet, data-ownership issues and even individual mindsets will need to change if the enormous benefits from talent platforms alone are to be realised.

Since the potential gains are so significant, developing supporting frameworks for this new economy is critical. McKinsey suggests online talent platforms alone could add $2.7 trillion to global GDP by 2025, creating work for 540 million[ii]. The old industrial model has proven incapable of providing for these people, and is responsible in many ways for inducing severe labour and talent shortages across a wide range of industries and geographies – as well perhaps for migration. Since all business are now technology businesses (or at least in various stages of becoming so), platforms offer a way of creating new opportunities and new economic and social mechanisms that are better equipped in dealing with some of our most pressing problems.

[i] https://www.accenture.com/us-en/insight-digital-platform-economy 

[ii]  http://www.mckinsey.com/global-themes/employment-and-growth/connecting-talent-with-opportunity-in-the-digital-age

The end of the golden age for companies?

The underpinnings that have sustained corporate growth for many of the previous decades are eroding, and many truths are starting to unravel. The emerging business environment is both increasingly uncertain and ever more competitive, and coupled with the emerging competition from new markets it would be easy to form a narrative of decline for western companies. The rules of business are changing and those failing to notice will perish.

goldenage

For those not wedded to previous, and perhaps current, ways of doing things, the future holds great promise. The rise of the global consuming class is set to undergo a rapid expansion by 1.8 billion by 2025, by which time global consumption is expected nearly to double, to $64 trillion and global revenue could increase by more than 40%, to $185 trillion[i]. New industries, new markets and new sources of consumption – as well as changes within the type of consumption in core markets all offer opportunities to innovate and carve new value propositions.

Cynics would be correct in pointing out that much of this growth will go to emerging market competitors and that emerging market competitors will increasingly pose a challenge in many western companies’ home markets. The blurring of industry boundaries, and corrosive power of technology companies that allows quick implementation of data rich sets and cost structures onto a range of industries add an additional dimension to competition, as well as providing new opportunities for those agile enough in thought and action. The opportunities for entrepreneurship, partnering, collaboration and disruption are all significant.

Through both emerging market competition and digital vectors the challenge is clear – the relative decline of the large western corporation will exert even greater pressure to innovate and increase productivity just to survive, let alone thrive. Any relative decline could also lead to a fundamental rethink on some long standing assumptions of what factors make for a successful business. In fact, new business processes and models will be needed in conjunction with root and branch cultural renewal for success to be achieved en-masse. Board-level technology competency and direction is a matter of urgency (and one that will be addressed in a future GFF blog) and the platforming of key business processes could help create increasingly competitive companies more capable of success in the global digital economy. It also likely that the forces convulsing labour markets could someday lead to a rethink on the role of business and its place in society.

The combination of demographic, geopolitical and stage of consumer development that helped propel steady economic growth in western economies can never be repeated, and neither should the organisation models that emerged as a result of these conditions. New models are not a ‘nice to have,’ they are essential. This means actively disrupting your own model before a data rich competitor or emerging market competitor (from within or outside your vertical) does it for you. Bleeding edge may not be desirable but neither is disruption and in some cases, the comfort zone between the two is decreasing. Those agile enough to inhabit this evolving ground could well post revenue and profits that help redefine the ‘golden age.’

[i] https://hbr.org/2015/10/the-future-and-how-to-survive-it

The emerging T&T data platform economy

Accenture notes that ‘…digital offers a once in a generation opportunity to embrace the future and gain sustainable advantage in the marketplace by shifting to new, more sustainable economic models, while simultaneously stepping up to better satisfy real consumer demand[i].’ This is the crux of where branding strategies need to shift to. Effective digital transformation should include tools and processes display and enable transparency. This is a powerful point from which to launch predictive analytics and other potentially powerful consumer-centric strategies. Data will enable ever greater micro segmentation of customers, increased personalisation for customers and a more effective search for new customers.

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As a result of the emerging digital revolution, considerable business model change is underway. In 2013, 14 of the top 30 global brands by market capitalization were platform-oriented companies[ii]. MIT Sloan notes that as these companies can get closer to their customers, they often develop ‘…a competitive advantage based on new insights into pricing, network effects, supply chains, and strategy.’ In short, branding is moving from simply selling a product and towards ‘…adding value and engaging the customer[iii].’

Data, its analysis and applied insights should stand at the centre of future ecosystem applications, since companies that succeed in both demonstrating trust and applying data driven yield productivity rates and profitability that are 5-to-6 percent higher than those of their peers. Furthermore, McKinsey research shows that those that embed data in the DNA of their marketing and sales decisions improve their marketing return on investment (MROI) by 15-to-20 percent[iv]. This is, of course, nothing new for many individual components of the travel industry. Travel retailers, hotels and airlines form some leading examples of how to run data driven campaigns. The challenge remains however, for the industry to create common platforms that provide single points of access for consumers.

The Internet of Things (IoT) offers one possible medium for both unifying disparate standards (although it will require a common standard/platform itself) and gathering exponentially more data, and more valuable data. Thanks to IoT growth, the turn of the decade could also see consumers interacting with over 150 sensor-enabled devices every day, with 60 percent of device interactions proving ‘passive’, allowing people to use information from intelligent systems and machine learning[v].

It is only through more granular data, ostensibly including IoT sources, and providing consumers with easy to use and manage technology interfaces that personalised service will ever be realised.  This presents the great possibility of crafting seamless travel propositions, new value for consumers as well as industry stakeholders; the time to start developing platforms that span these stakeholders is now.

 

[i] http://insuranceblog.accenture.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/Accenture_The_Digital_insurer_PC_Insurance.pdf

[ii] http://executive.mit.edu/blogpost/why-platforms-beat-products-every-time#.VumTi-IrLIU

[iii] http://executive.mit.edu/blogpost/why-platforms-beat-products-every-time#.VumTi-IrLIU

[iv] http://www.sas.com/content/dam/SAS/en_us/doc/whitepaper1/using-big-smart-data-107003.pdf

[v] https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/02/5-predictions-for-technology-in-2020/